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> 有沒有住在美國的版友, 你們自己或者身邊的美國朋友.....
阿暪
發表於: Jul 14 2018, 11:39  
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有沒有住在美國的版友, 你們自己或者身邊的美國朋友, 是怎樣看 Donald Trump 的? 
又怎樣看美國對各國發起的貿易戰?


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Pearltea
發表於: Jul 18 2018, 03:48  評價+2
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Hi, looks like I was being summoned here. :D
I saw your other post earlier (think I gave you a 'like' there as well) and I liked the way you analyzed the current affair. I wish I could contribute more to this discussion but tbh I haven't given enough thoughts about this in order to form my own opinion.

So here's my quick one (as opposed to two) cent on this: 
It's a known fact that the US trade deficit is largely imbalanced with hundreds of billions in the hole. This is an outcome of the country importing much more than its export. One could view that as a 'problem' and try to 'fix' it by reducing import in the form of imposing tariffs or limiting quota (aka trade wars). Obviously that seems like a no-brainer, because what do you (collectively) do when you spend more than you make? Reduce spending! There are certainly alternatives to cope with or even optimize state like this (eh, simply make more?), but I get why Trump wasn't a fan of this idea - he is a fiscal conservative, business-minded person. So from his standpoint, in order to balance the book, he needs to 'cut back on spending', and he starts with the spending imbalance that deems most 'problematic'.

I'm sure everyone knows already, the US has been depending on importing billions of goods from China like it's on drugs in the past few decades, but at the same time US corporations were enjoying copious productions at low cost, making record profits, rising dividends, and reinvesting surpluses in order to fuel additional growth.  This also resulted in tremendous job growth in the country. While the economy was in a great shape and the markets were making new highs, the benefits did not carry down to everyone equally.  Even though tons of jobs were added, there were heavily focused in selected sectors and areas, especially those that required more skills and higher education.  For workers in areas like manufacturing and other sectors where outsourcing or automating productions can easily reduce or replace the cost of hiring labors domestically, they were hit hard instead. Millions of low-skilled labors lost their jobs, went from lower middle to lower income class, and found themselves having hard times even making ends meet. All of these are, understandably, hard for many to accept. And to be fair, it did create social problems in the country as well. Hence it didn't surprise me that many of those who were greatly impacted by this chose to support Trump and hope that he would "Make America Great Again" because they believe that 'globalization' was the root of the problem.  Frankly, I am not sure if Trump were to run his own business he would favor bringing jobs back to America, but now he's in a different position and he obviously has to think and act differently. It's not an easy answer but I feel that it's unfair to jump to the conclusion and blame him for exacerbating things. What I would prefer to see though, is to have trade deals renegotiated and encourage more exports, I think that would be the ideal case of balancing trade deficit.  But my knowledge in this area is limited at best so I'm going to stop here.

So the ship has sailed, threats are escalating and a real trade war is looking pretty imminent now.  IMO neither party will benefit from this - US will see rising production costs which will then translate to rising prices.  That will fuel more inflation.  Are manufacturing jobs coming back? Not in a million years (figuratively).  Corporations are smart enough to know that they will not move manufacturing plants back to the country just because the cost difference between domestic and foreign productions are marginally smaller.  

Regarding Trump, I haven't been following too closely since...I mean you know how he is.  Most of the news headlines were around him firing and hiring people in his administration or making lame comments and I got tired of following them. 
I know some people like to bash everything he does and I don't agree with that.  I like to look at and evaluate everything individually and that's just my personal preference.  One event that I paid a bit more attention to was last month's US-North Korea Summit. My day job involves negotiation now so I have a keen interest in all things related to negotiation.  I do think Trump handled the entire thing much better than what I expected. I recalled days before the summit he was asked what he was expecting for the discussion, and his answer was something like "he wasn't going to do any prep work because the conversation would be based on his 'touch and feel'".  Everyone who hated him immediately jumped on the bandwagon and started calling him an idiot - but I actually thought his response was very intelligent and candid (and without giving out too much) - at least from my own experience. I honestly can't recall one time a financial deal was sealed simply by reasoning logic with our counterparts. In fact, the most lucrative deals were signed because we connected well with the other parties, and they were results of many good 'touch and feel' conversations. I believe Trump did what he said he was going to do before meeting so for that I gave kudos for POTUS for a job well done.

Okay I think I've written enough....til next time! Hope everyone is doing well. 

本篇文章已被 Pearltea 於 Jul 21 2018, 17:18 編輯過
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阿暪
發表於: Jul 21 2018, 13:20  評價+2
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一品官
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謝謝 pearltea 的回應! 非常詳細和條理分明!

對於 pearltea 的分析, 我想再補充兩點:

首先, 在坊間的討論, 很多時對 Donald Trump 的描述是「一個生意人」
其實我覺得這種說法很空泛, 也不準確. 生意人有很多種, 其行為可以南轅北轍
例如, 一種生意人是會在經營中建立信譽, 與交易夥伴互利, 讓生意長做長有
而 Donald Trump 很明顯不是這種, 他是另一種所謂「生意人」
他是那種把生意和交易當成零和遊戲的人, 認為一個交易之中, 不是你搵我笨就是我搵你笨的那種
所以他在達成一個交易的目標, 就是盡可能從交易對手身上詐取盡可能多好處, 
如果令對手虧本就最好, 這就代表自己賺翻了. 他這種做生意手法就是跟別人只打算做一次生意
做完一次交易就不期望有下次了, 下次再找另外一個人去壓榨
其實這也符合他對自己的描述, 他也沒說自己是善於「經營」, 他是善於「做 DEAL」嘛
這就解釋了他為何就是對各個盟友開火, 把貿易夥伴威嚇壓榨
這就是他「做生意」的方式了.

第二, 我也談一談美國的貿易赤字
美國為何有貿易赤字? 想當然, 那當然是因為美國人「洗太多錢」了
但其實美國人「過度消費」, 這只是結果, 而不是根本原因
這就像說一個人為何會入不敷支? -- 因為他支出太多呀!
那其實只是在說同一樣的事情, 而沒有指出其根源 (例如: 他需要醫病, 或者他有老幼要照顧, 或者他不注重理財等)
首先談談貿易赤字. 如果以一個普通國家而言, 它是每可能無止境地有貿易赤字的

如果那個國家的貿易赤字是用自己的貨幣去買其他東西, 那麼它不斷把自己的貨幣來支付別國的貨物
那麼國外就會有很多很多這個國家的貨幣, 別國的出口商就需要在國際市場上出售這些貨幣來兌換自己的貨幣
於是貿赤國的匯率就是下降, 最終令本國生產變得比別國生產便宜, 從而扭轉貿易赤字

如果那個國家的貿易赤字是用其他國家的貨幣去買其他東西, 那麼它一直用其他國家的貨幣支付別國的貨物
最終它就會沒有足夠的外匯, 從而中止了貿赤

但美國的情況就很特殊. 美國是全球的霸主, 美元是國際通用的國際貨幣
因此全球各國很願意接受、囤積美元, 和以美元作為其外匯儲備
於是即使美國一直貿易赤字, 但美元卻一直有需求, 市場的力量並沒有使美元貶值, 令美國國內生產變得比在外國生產有效率
以致美國連續幾十年維持著貿易赤字, 或者說, 美國是一直以「出口」美元來換取「入口」貨物
這是我所認為的美國貿易赤字的根源.


--------------------
暗淡了刀光劍影,遠去了鼓角錚鳴
眼前飛揚著一個個鮮活的面容
湮沒了黃塵古道,荒蕪了烽火邊城
歲月啊!你帶不走那一串串熟悉的姓名

興亡誰人定啊!盛衰豈無憑啊!
一頁風雲散啊...變幻了時空
聚散皆是緣啊!離合總關情啊!
擔當生前事啊...何計身後評?

長江有意化作淚,長江有情起歌聲
歷史的天空,閃爍幾顆星
人間一股英雄氣...
在馳騁縱橫...
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阿暪
發表於: Jul 21 2018, 13:56  評價+1
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一品官
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發表數: 5,279
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活躍:17
聲望:1208


另外, 對於關稅對雙方經濟的衝擊, 我也想過一個問題

一件貨,中國五蚊入口原材料,十蚊出厰出口去美國,
船運出口,經過貨運、貿易公司、品牌商、批發商、分銷商、零售商,
最後到美國消費者手上一百蚊,在價值鏈其中,中國衹佔了$5 value added GDP, 而美國則佔了$90value added GDP
如果這件貨整個交易消失了,誰受到的影響更大

當然以上計算只是虛數, 並不是真正的計量. 我想說的是進口貨物整個價值鏈的概念.
在談貿易戰的時候, 很多人想當然的覺得, 美國不從中國進口貨物, 那麼就是中國損失生意, 中國的工人會失業
中國固之然會受到影響, 但對美國來說也並不單單是貨物貴了一點而已
一件貨物並不單單是出口商賣了, 美國消費者買了這麼簡單
一件貨物進口到美國, 除了「養活」了中國出口商和工人, 在中間也「養活」了美國的中間商, 貿易商, 進口商等
美國這些人的生意和工作也同樣會受到影響

當然, 美國不從中國進口某某貨物, 也不代表貿易就完了, 美國也依然可以從其他國家進口同樣的貨物
但這就引起了兩個問題:
第一, 這會導致效率的下降. 這些進口商/貿易商等, 從前會從中國進口這些貨物, 
就是因為這樣做是這刻在經濟上是最有效率的. 這樣是國際產業鏈分工在某種均衡下的結果
假如透過關稅或行政手段, 夾硬把這些進口改為從其他國家進口, 或者自己生產
那就是令效率下降了 (因為假如這些做法是更有效率的話, 在有關稅之前已經會這樣做了, 而有關稅後這樣做, 那麼這些選項本身至少也是次選)
效率下降的結果, 工資與物價的改變, 最終反映出來的就是讓美國人民的生活質素下降

第二, 今時今日中國出口的規模, 是以巨大人口規模和高度發達的基建來達成的
假如美國的進口商不從中國進口, 改為從其他發展中國家進口, 又是否真的足以替代? 
(不談高端的產品, 如果說一般日用輕工業產品, 例如打火機/衣架/衫褲鞋襪/生活百貨 , 至少也不會能變成在發達國家生產吧)
環顧全球,世界74億人口,  
14億在中國, 10億在歐美, 13億在印度, 10億左右在日韓台+東南亞+孟加拉, 其餘2,30億的都是中東非洲南美
歐美本身已經是發達國家, 大概也不怎麼會再做這些中低端的工業品
印度本身都已經接收了不少美國的服務業/IT業外包, 但基建落後, 工業的大規模出口一直做不起來
日韓台則也是發達國家, 
東南亞+孟加拉則也一直已經有做出口到美國的工業產品, 或許能增加一點的額外產能吸收一點中國失去的生意, 但要做, 能做的都已經做了, 大概也未至於能新增這麼大的產能, 作為整個中國的出口的替代
其他的中東非洲南美國家要麼本身也是出口資源的國家, 國民也是以進口維生, 或者就是基建落後的國家, 或者就是戰亂動盪的國家, 又哪裡足夠吸收這些美國進口的需要?


--------------------
暗淡了刀光劍影,遠去了鼓角錚鳴
眼前飛揚著一個個鮮活的面容
湮沒了黃塵古道,荒蕪了烽火邊城
歲月啊!你帶不走那一串串熟悉的姓名

興亡誰人定啊!盛衰豈無憑啊!
一頁風雲散啊...變幻了時空
聚散皆是緣啊!離合總關情啊!
擔當生前事啊...何計身後評?

長江有意化作淚,長江有情起歌聲
歷史的天空,閃爍幾顆星
人間一股英雄氣...
在馳騁縱橫...
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